If the auto-rickshaw I am traveling in, brakes suddenly and takes a turn - left or right - depending on which side I am seated - left or right - what are the various things that can happen? (It's an accident situation.)
The autorickshaw takes a left turn and I am seated on the left - so I would swing to the right and the right side would be below me - of course it's an accident where the autorickshaw topples onto it's right side - so what do I do? I immediately lunge toward the open left side and hang out so that when the auto finally rests on its right - I can stand - and am not hurt - except for maybe a couple of bruises on my elbows, knees due to them bumping against the autorickshaw's inner pipes etc.
The autorickshaw takes a left turn and I am seated on the right - so I would swing to the right and maybe go out the right side and maybe the auto would land on top of me, crushing a couple or more of my bones. So what should I do? I should immediately lunge toward the left side, hang onto the inner pipes and bring my knees upto my chest - so that my legs don't get dragged under the autorickshaw when it finally comes to rest on its right side.
Change all the lefts to right and all rights to left in SCENARIO I.
Change all the lefts to right and all rights to left in SCENARIO II.
- The key is - would I actually do it? Would my brain actually have time to react to the scenarios?
Is scenario planning any good if we only end up imagining the scenarios and never using them?
- Is "experience
" the only way to find out whether the scenario actually works?
- Is scenario planning any good for innovation?
- Is there a discipline called "Innovation Scenario Planning
- If there is someone who practices something similar - would you please share what you do on the ASIDE blog?
We would love to e-print your work summary!
As for whether "my" brain had time to use the scenario planning - the answer is "yes" - SCENARIO I above happened to me and I had time to think of what might happen, what was actually happening in that split second and I actually did what I had thought would be the best. It worked for me and I only have two slightly bruised knees. Unfortunately my co-passenger who got caught in SCENARIO II above was caught absolutely unawares - we both saw the reason why the autorickshaw driver braked, but my co-passenger did what the majority of us would have done - just took a bit more time to absorb and process the information being relayed to the brain. Result:
the co-passenger has one really badly bruised and bleeding leg because it was crushed by the autorickshaw.
- So does that mean that scenario planning maybe effective only for certain individuals?
- How does one classify the differences?
- If scenario planning itself differentiates between the people it might be taught to, will the effectiveness go down further for "Innovation Scenario Planning" - since the subject becomes more specialized.
P.S. - this is what an autorickshaw looks like - Autorickshaw
- will give you a better visual idea of what the scenarios might look like.